Economic Scan – Newfoundland and Labrador - 2026

Demographics

Highlights

In 2025, 550,000 people lived in Newfoundland and Labrador, an increase of 0.6% from 2024 to 2025. Newfoundland and Labrador represents 1.3% of Canada's total population.

Average age of the non Indigenous population in Newfoundland and Labrador is 45.7 versus 39.1 in the Indigenous population (Census 2021).

The proportion of seniors aged 65+ is projected to increase from 25.2% in 2025 to 29.7% in 2035.
In 2025, individuals aged 55 and over accounted for 46.3% of the working-age population. This is projected to reach 48.1% in 2035.
The proportion of youth (15-29) is projected to decline from 16.3% in 2025 to 15.6% in 2035.
Most youth work in environments that prevent teleworking, led by retail trade as well as accommodation and food services.

The Indigenous population represents 9.3% of the total provincial population (2021 Census) and faces more challenging labour market conditions. This includes a higher unemployment rate and lower participation rate when compared to the non-Indigenous population.

99.4% of Newfoundlanders and Labradorians identified English as their first official language (2021 Census), while 0.5% identified the province's other official language, French. Only 0.1% identified a first language that was neither English nor French.

Recent immigrants (those arriving between 2016 and 2021) accounted for 29.9% of Newfoundland and Labrador’s immigrant population in 2021. The province has placed considerable emphasis on increasing immigration levels to fill labour market gaps, particularly in health care. Immigrants have a higher participation rate and a lower unemployment rate when compared to people born in Canada.

According to the 2022 Canadian Survey on Disability, 30.9% of the provincial population aged 15 and over were persons with disabilities, an increase of 7.3 percentage points compared to the 2017 survey. In comparison, Canada's disability rate increased by 4.7 percentage points to 27.0%. The stronger provincial increase and higher than average disability rate can be tied to an aging population, as disabilities rates increase with age. Newfoundland and Labrador has the highest median age in Canada (48.0 years).

Labour Market Conditions

In 2025...

Employment declined slightly (-0.1%)

Unemployment rose moderately (1.8%)

Participation rate experienced a drop (58.3% to 57.8%)

Employment rate fell slightly (52.5% to 52.0%)

**Newfoundland and Labrador's Unemployment Rate**

Unemployment Rate
Year	Unemployment Rate (%)
2016	13.7
2017	15.2
2018	14.0
2019	12.2
2020	14.3
2021	13.0
2022	11.3
2023	9.9
2024	10.0
2025	10.1

Employment fell slightly while the labour force showed a small gain in size, raising the unemployment rate from 10.0% to 10.1%. Full-time employment losses outweighed part-time gains. Despite the higher unemployment rate, it remained notably lower than pre-pandemic conditions mainly due to employment growth.
Of note, there was a notable gender difference in the results. Employment and labour force size both increased for males across all major age groups, while females experienced losses.
While the youth unemployment rate (16.4%) rose to its highest since 2021, the rate for those 25 years and over fell to a new low (9.2%).
The participation rate fell in 2025, as the population grew (+4,600) but the labour force showed little change (+300).

Economic Conditions

Newfoundland and Labrador's Economic Drivers in 2025

Slow population growth

Lower capital investment

Oil production rising

**GDP Growth Rate in Province**
Year	GDP growth rate
2022	-1.1%
2023	-3.0%
2024	2.7%

The province’s population increased by 0.6% in 2025, its lowest growth rate since 2021. Between July 1, 2024 and July 1, 2025, net international migration (+5,906) was down 40%. This was due to a large drop in net non-permanent residents, falling sharply from 4,701 to 574. In addition, while net interprovincial migration was positive (+65), it was considerably less than the previous year (+1,091). Without gains from immigration, the population would have declined as deaths exceeded births by nearly 3,000. Those aged 65 years and older continued to grow (+3,623).
Retail sales continued to grow in 2025, with a 3.7% increase over 2024. The oil and gas sector has rebounded, with offshore oil production rising by 14.5% compared to a year earlier. In mining, nickel production showed particularly robust growth, doubling through September versus a year earlier. The fishery also grew in value, mainly due to a 41% increase in snow crab prices. Among indicators showing a decline in 2025, capital investment fell as major project activity related to the Voisey’s Bay underground mine and Valentine gold mine was completed. In addition, housing starts were down by 6.2% compared to the previous year.

Risks to the Newfoundland and Labrador Economy in 2026

The war in Iran has become the greatest risk to the provincial economy in 2026. Since the war started, the price of oil has risen considerably as thousands of giant oil tankers are stalled in the Strait of Hormuz, due to the risk of being attacked. This has cut the world’s oil supply by 15-20%. Even if the war ended immediately, oil prices are expected to remain elevated for the remainder of the year, as there will remain an element of risk factored into the price. Furthermore, there have been attacks on oil infrastructure in virtually all Gulf states, which have increased tensions in the region.
While elevated oil prices translate to higher oil royalties for the provincial government, this impact is more than offset by the rise in gas and diesel prices. This pushes inflation rates higher, as price increases translate into higher transportation costs for goods and cuts disposable income. Also, travel will be more costly, affecting tourism potential.

Provincial Issues

In April of 2025, the deficit for 2025-26 was expected to be $372M. However, this had increased to $626M by August. This increase was mainly due to a lower-than-expected price in oil, which negatively affected royalties. In October, there was a change in government, and a new fiscal update was released in December. The result of this update was a further adjustment in the projected deficit to $948M. Net debt stands at $20B, with plans to borrow $4B for this fiscal year. The auditor general has described the province's financial situation as perilous. High debt levels can limit the amount of money available to spend on health care, infrastructure, education, and other services. This has forced government to be more selective in how it meets its priorities, including the cancellation of a proposed new hospital and a lower road work budget.
Homelessness has risen in the province, with the majority of those affected facing chronic or long-term instability. Among the homeless, approximately 90% have reported to having at least one disability, and 75% with more than one disability. This adds to the challenge in finding appropriate housing. On the social housing front, the province’s auditor general reported the waitlist grew by nearly 70% between 2021 and 2026, while there was a net loss of 60 units over the same period.
Food bank operators in Newfoundland and Labrador are beginning to see a considerable increase in working families using food banks as they struggle to make ends meet financially. Approximately 30% of people in the province live in food insecure households, including 40% of children.

Industry Trends

Show data table

**Employment change ('000s) by Industry (NAICS) in 2025**
Industry (NAICS)	Employment Change ('000s)
Other services (except public administration)	1.5
Public administration	1.1
Business, building and other support...	1.1
Information, culture and recreation	0.7
Wholesale and retail trade	0.6
Finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing	0.4
Utilities	0.1
Transportation and warehousing	-0.2
Agriculture	-0.2
Health care and social assistance	-0.4
Manufacturing	-0.4
Accommodation and food services	-0.4
Professional, scientific and technical services	-0.6
Educational services	-0.9
Forestry, fishing, mining, quarrying, oil and gas	-1.2
Construction	-1.6

Public administration reached a new high in 2025. This was mainly due to a gain at the local level, in which employment reached its highest level since 2019 for that group. Employment at the provincial and federal levels was relatively steady.
In business, building and other support services, security services was the group mainly responsible for the gain, adding 1,100 jobs to reach its highest level since 2019.
Construction had the sharpest decline, with residential construction falling (-1,000) to its lowest level since 2021.
Despite a loss, educational services remained the second highest on record based on data since 2005. Most of the loss was in primary and secondary schools, topped only by the record high reached in 2024.
Health care and social assistance fell from its record high set in 2024. While ambulatory health care services and hospitals set new highs, social assistance lost 2,000 jobs.

Regional Economic Conditions

The Avalon Peninsula region had most of the province's growth in population, labour force size, and employment, with all measures reaching their highest levels based on data since 2006. However, the unemployment rate increased as the labour force grew faster than employment. New highs were reached in educational services as well as health care and social assistance, while both construction and wholesale and retail trade had their highest employment levels since 2016.
Employment fell in the South Coast-Burin Peninsula and Notre Dame-Central-Bonavista Bay region, with full-time work bearing the loss. The decline was mainly in the goods-producing sector, particularly in construction and manufacturing. In addition, this area was the only one in the province with a loss in health care and social assistance.
In the West Coast-Northern Peninsula-Labrador region, employment was unchanged while the labour force declined slightly, resulting in the area's lowest unemployment rate based on data since 2006. A small employment loss in the goods producing sector was offset by a gain in the service-producing sector. Construction fell to its lowest level since 2020, while health care and social assistance and public administration both produced gains.