Economic Scan - Manitoba: 2025
Demographics
Highlights
- Contrary to the national average, Manitoba had a higher proportion of children aged 0 to 14 (17.6%) than people 65 years and older (17.2%) in 2025.
- In 2025, working aged youth (15-24) represented 13.4% of Manitoba's total population, a higher percentage than any other province, and significantly higher than the national average (12.3%).
- Manitoba's working age population (ages 15 to 64) reached 65.1% of the total population in 2025 — 1.7 percentage points higher than the national average (63.5%).
- Manitoba's population growth in 2025 continues to rely heavily on international migration, though federal policy changes are moderating inflows. At the same time, improving interprovincial migration trends are helping sustain overall population growth.
1.5 million people lived in Manitoba in 2025, an increase of 1.2% from 2024. Manitobans represent 3.6% of Canada's total population.
In 2025, Manitoba's labour force included approximately 92,700 Indigenous people, accounting for approximately 11.9% of the province's workforce. The unemployment rate for Indigenous people in Manitoba was 9.6% in 2025, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous year and nearly double that of non-Indigenous Manitoban's (5.1%).
In 2021, 22.2% of Manitoba's population identified as a visible minority. The largest share of visible minorities in the province were Filipinos (7.2%) — the highest proportion of Filipinos of any province, and well over the national average (2.6%).
In 2025, immigrants represented a quarter (25.3%) of Manitoba's working age population, up 1.3 percentage points from 2024 (+21,000). The unemployment rate for immigrants in Manitoba is slightly higher than for non-immigrants (6.2% vs 5.6%) but remains well below the national average of 7.4% for landed immigrants. Immigrants that landed more than 10 years had a much lower unemployment rate (4.3%) than more recent immigrants.
In 2024, the participation rate for people with disabilities rose by 2.8 percentage points, while the participation rate for people without disabilities fell by 2.0 percentage points to 71.1%. The employment rate for people with disabilities reached 49.6%, up from 48.1% in 2023. Their unemployment rate was 7.6%.
Source: Statistics Canada — Labour Force Survey and Labour Market Socioeconomic Indicators (2024).
Labour Market Conditions
In 2025...
Employment increased (+1.6%)
Unemployment increased (+9.8%)
Participation rate decreased (-0.3 pp to 66.8%)
Employment rate decreased (-0.7 pp to 63.1%)
Show data table
| Year | Unemployment Rate (%) |
|---|---|
| 2015 | 5.7 |
| 2016 | 6.1 |
| 2017 | 5.3 |
| 2018 | 6.0 |
| 2019 | 5.3 |
| 2020 | 8.1 |
| 2021 | 6.5 |
| 2022 | 4.5 |
| 2023 | 4.9 |
| 2024 | 5.4 |
| 2025 | 5.9 |
- In 2025, Manitoba's unemployment rate increased for the third consecutive year, reaching 5.9%, however remains below the national average (6.3%). Unemployment was highest for youth workers in the province (aged 15-24) (11.9%).
- Manitoba's labour force increased 2.0% in 2025 (+15,700), with 11,800 more people employed in the province compared to 2024.
- Gains in the labour force outpaced employment growth, leading to an increase (+4,100) in unemployment in 2025. Looking forward, Signal49 Research (formerly named Conference Board of Canada) expects that labour‑force growth to flatten almost completely by 2027.
Economic Conditions
Manitoba's Economic Drivers in 2025
High public-sector spending
Resilience in trade-exposed sectors
Steady immigration
Source: Signal49 Research. Provincial Five-Year Outlook. October 2025.
Show data table
| Year | Forecasted GDP Growth Rate |
|---|---|
| 2025 | 0.8% |
| 2026 | 1.4% |
| 2027 | 2.5% |
| 2028 | 2.4% |
Reviewing 2025...
- Manitoba's economy in 2025 is supported by strong public‑sector spending, including record health‑care investments and a $3.7B capital plan, the largest in the province's history.
- The province's core goods‑producing sectors, transportation, manufacturing, and agriculture, which drive much of Manitoba's exports, remain resilient, supported by targeted provincial programs and adaptive strategies within the business community. Their stability continues to anchor employment and support the province's outlook despite global trade pressures.
- Immigration also contributes to growth: Manitoba added 17,558 people over the twelve months ending July 2025, a 1.18% increase driven mainly by international inflows. Although growth has slowed from the exceptionally strong pace of recent years, immigration remains a key contributor to Manitoba's labour force.
Risks to the Manitoba Economy in 2026
- Trade tensions and tariffs: The U.S.–Canada trade disputes continue to create uncertainty. Nearly two‑thirds of Manitoba businesses report negative impacts from tariffs, and four in five expect trade disruptions to remain a major concern.
- Business cynicism and investment hesitation: Low business confidence in the current economic climate is leading many firms to hold back on hiring and delay investment decisions, as uncertainty around costs, supply chains, and global conditions make them more cautious. This hesitation could slow Manitoba's economic momentum in 2026.
- Climate related disruptions: The provincial government reported that climate‑driven wildfires and droughts have had a measurable impact on finances and economic performance. Agriculture and transportation, two of the province's core sectors, are highly exposed.
Regional Issues
Migration
In 2024/2025 net interprovincial migration to Manitoba was -4,047. More people moved to other provinces and territories (16,577) than chose to come to Manitoba (12,530). The majority of those who left went to Alberta (29%) and Ontario (28%). Most of those who came to Manitoba were from Ontario (41%).
Industry Trends
Show data table
| Industry (NAICS) | Employment Change ('000s) | Percent Change (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Health care and social assistance | +9.1 | +7.9 |
| Accommodation and food services | +4.0 | +11.1 |
| Professional, scientific and technical services | +3.0 | +8.1 |
| Construction | +2.5 | +4.4 |
| Agriculture | +1.4 | +10.6 |
| Utilities | +0.9 | +15.0 |
| Business, building and other support services | +0.3 | +1.6 |
| Information, culture and recreation | +0.0 | +0.0 |
| Forestry, fishing, mining, quarrying, oil and gas | -0.2 | -3.1 |
| Finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing | -0.4 | -0.8 |
| Educational services | -0.8 | -1.2 |
| Wholesale and retail trade | -0.8 | -0.8 |
| Manufacturing | -0.9 | -1.3 |
| Public administration | -1.2 | -2.7 |
| Transportation and warehousing | -2.3 | -4.7 |
| Other services (except public administration) | -2.8 | -9.1 |
- The largest increase in employment was in the health care and social assistance sector, up 7.9% (+9,100) bolstered by Manitoba's 2025 provincial budget which placed significant focus on increasing the workforce in this sector.
- Employment in the transportation and warehousing sector was down 4.7% (-2,300) in 2025. Looking forwards, this sector is expanding as development of CentrePort Canada Rail Park continues north of Winnipeg.
- Employment in manufacturing declined 1.3% (-900). In 2025, Manitoba's manufacturing sales were projected to show a 14.1% increase compared to the previous year, with sales in October rising to $2.5 billion. This increase is primarily driven by higher sales in the transportation equipment sector.
- Agriculture employment increased 10.6% (+1,400), marking its first year of growth in five years, reflecting improved conditions in crop and livestock operations. This uptick signals renewed stability in a sector that had faced prolonged weather and cost‑related pressures.
Regional Economic Conditions
- Employment increased in three of the six economic regions in Manitoba in 2025. The most significant increase was in the Southeast region, where employment increased 3.0%.
- Winnipeg led provincial job growth, adding about 11,000 new positions in 2025, the strongest increase among Manitoba's economic regions.
- Employment declined in the Southwest, Interlake, and Parklands and Northern and regions, with decreases of 1.1%, 2.3%, and 2.5% respectively.
Employment Change by Economic Region, 2025
Show data table
| Economic Region | Percent Change (%) | Employment Change ('000s) |
|---|---|---|
| Southeast | +3.0 | +2.2 |
| Winnipeg | +2.4 | +11.0 |
| South Central and North Central | +1.7 | +1.0 |
| Manitoba | +1.6 | +11.8 |
| Southwest | -1.1 | -0.7 |
| Interlake | -2.3 | -1.1 |
| Parklands and Northern | -2.5 | -0.8 |
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