Economic Scan - Manitoba: 2024
Demographics
Highlights
- Contrary to the national average, Manitoba had a higher proportion of children aged 0 to 14 (17.9%) than people 65 years and older (16.8%) in 2024.
- In 2024, working aged youth (15-24) represented 13.6% of Manitoba's total population, a higher percentage than any other province, and significantly higher than the national average (12.3%).
- Manitoba's working age population (ages 15 to 64) reached 65.2% of the total population in 2024 — 1.7 percentage points higher than the national average (63.5%).
- Manitoba's population growth in 2024 was primarily driven by immigration. New restrictions to federal immigration policies are expected to slow population growth over the next three years.
1.5 million people lived in Manitoba in 2024, an increase of 2.7% from 2023. Manitobans represent 3.6% of Canada's total population.
According to the 2021 Census, 18.1% of those residing in Manitoba identify as Indigenous — the highest percentage among provinces, and significantly more than the national average (5.0%). Most of the Indigenous population in Manitoba is First Nations (56.9%) with 40.8% Métis and 0.3% Inuit.
In 2021, 22.2% of Manitoba's population identified as a visible minority. The largest share of visible minorities in the province were Filipinos (7.2%) — the highest proportion of Filipinos of any province, and well over the national average (2.6%).
In 2024, immigrants represented 24.0% of people aged 15 years and over in Manitoba, up 1.2 percentage points from 2023 (+23,100). The overall unemployment rate for immigrants in Manitoba is slightly higher than for non-immigrants (5.5% vs 5.0%) but remains the lowest of any province. Immigrants that landed more than 10 years ago had a much lower unemployment rate (3.7%).
According to the 2022 Canadian Survey on Disability, 29.2% of Manitoba's population, aged 15 years and older, had at least one disability. Just over half of this disabled population participated in the labour force — a much lower participation rate than for those without disabilities (72.8%). In 2022, the unemployment rate for disabled people in Manitoba was 10.9%.
Source: Statistics Canada - Canadian Survey on Disability (CSD) 2022.
Labour Market Conditions
In 2024...
Employment increased (+2.5%)
Unemployment increased (+14.9%)
Participation rate decreased (-0.3pp to 66.8%)
Employment rate decreased (-0.7pp to 63.1%)
Show data table
| Year | Unemployment Rate (%) |
|---|---|
| 2014 | 5.5 |
| 2015 | 5.7 |
| 2016 | 6.1 |
| 2017 | 5.3 |
| 2018 | 6.0 |
| 2019 | 5.3 |
| 2020 | 8.1 |
| 2021 | 6.5 |
| 2022 | 4.5 |
| 2023 | 4.9 |
| 2024 | 5.4 |
- In 2024, Manitoba's unemployment rate increased for a second consecutive year, reaching 5.4%. The provincial unemployment rate is tied for the second lowest among provinces and remains below the national average (6.3%).
- Manitoba's labour force increased 3.1% in 2024 (+23,100), with 17,600 more people employed in the province compared to 2023.
- Gains in the labour force outpaced employment growth, leading to an increase (+5,400) in unemployment in 2024. The Conference Board of Canada expects the same trend in 2025, with growth in the labour force (1.5%) outpacing employment (1.4%).
Economic Conditions
Manitoba's Economic Drivers in 2024
Reduced inflation
Interest rate cuts
Steady immigration
Source: The Conference Board of Canada. Provincial Five-Year Outlook. November 2024.
Show data table
| Year | Forecasted GDP Growth Rate |
|---|---|
| 2024 | 0.9% |
| 2025 | 2.2% |
| 2026 | 2.3% |
| 2027 | 2.3% |
Reviewing 2024...
- Manitoba had the lowest annual inflation rate of any province in Canada in 2024 (1.1%), and much lower than the national average (2.4%). The provincial fuel tax holiday, which lasted the entire year, helped keep provincial inflation down.
- Reduced borrowing costs and lower inflation contributed to increased residential real estate sales. There were 14,600 sales in Winnipeg and surrounding area in 2024, up 20% from 2023.
- Total immigration for the first three quarters of 2024 was 20,224, up 2.3% compared to the first three quarters of 2023. Manitoba welcomed a record number of immigrants through the Provincial Nominee Program in 2024 (9,540).
- Total GDP growth in 2024 is expected to slow down to 0.9% in 2024 primarily due to lower output in the goods producing sectors. For the second consecutive year, there were lower levels of hydroelectricity production due to below normal precipitation. In fact, Manitoba Hydro reported a $123 million net loss for the first six months of their 2024-25 fiscal year.
Risks to the Manitoba Economy in 2025
- Tariffs imposed by the U.S. and China on Canadian imports will negatively impact Manitoba's exports and weaken business investment. In turn, this could lead to job losses and a decline in revenue for businesses across various sectors.
- U.S. tariffs, Canada's retaliatory tariffs, and the re-introduction of the provincial gas tax will put upward pressure on inflation in 2025.
- A reduction in immigration due to new federal policies is expected to lead to increased difficulty acquiring skilled labour over the course of the next three years.
Regional Issues
Migration
In 2023/2024 net interprovincial migration to Manitoba was -4,540. More people moved to other provinces and territories (18,308) than chose to come to Manitoba (13,768). The majority of those who left went to Ontario (29%) and Alberta (30%). Most of those who came to Manitoba were from Ontario (40%).
Industry Trends
Show data table
| Industry (NAICS) | Employment Change ('000s) | Percent Change (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Health care and social assistance | +7.7 | +7.2 |
| Transportation and warehousing | +6.2 | +14.4 |
| Finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing | +5.8 | +14.0 |
| Other services (except public administration) | +3.5 | +12.8 |
| Manufacturing | +1.3 | +1.8 |
| Wholesale and retail trade | +1.1 | +1.1 |
| Information, culture and recreation | +1.1 | +4.5 |
| Professional, scientific and technical services | +0.6 | +1.7 |
| Forestry, fishing, mining, quarrying, oil and gas | -0.2 | -3.0 |
| Utilities | -0.4 | -6.3 |
| Public administration | -1.0 | -2.2 |
| Construction | -1.0 | -1.7 |
| Educational services | -1.3 | -2.0 |
| Agriculture | -1.5 | -10.2 |
| Business, building and other support services | -2.1 | -10.0 |
| Accommodation and food services | -2.3 | -6.0 |
- The largest increase in employment was in the health care and social assistance sector, bolstered by Manitoba's 2024 provincial budget which placed significant focus on increasing the workforce in this sector.
- Employment in the transportation and warehousing sector was up 14.4% in 2024. This sector is expanding as development of CentrePort Canada Rail Park continues north of Winnipeg.
- Employment in manufacturing edged up 1.8% (+1,300). Total manufacturing sales were up 1.0% in 2024, reaching $26.6 billion. The majority of these sales were in food manufacturing (32%) and machinery and transportation equipment manufacturing (28%).
- Employment in the agriculture sector declined for the fourth consecutive year. This trend is driven by farm consolidation, retirement, and adoption of new technologies.
Regional Economic Conditions
- Employment increased in four of the six economic regions in Manitoba in 2024. The most significant increase was in the Southwest region, where employment increased 5.6%.
- The Winnipeg region led the province for total increase in employment, adding 15,300 jobs in 2024.
- The Parklands and Northern economic region had a reduction in employment (-3.6% or 1,200) as did the South Central and North Central region (-3.1% or -1,900).
Employment Change by Economic Region, 2024
Show data table
| Economic Region | Percent Change (%) | Employment Change ('000s) |
|---|---|---|
| Southwest | +5.6 | +3.3 |
| Winnipeg | +3.5 | +15.3 |
| Manitoba | +2.5 | +17.6 |
| Southeast | +2.1 | +1.5 |
| Interlake | +1.7 | +0.8 |
| South Central and North Central | -3.1 | -1.9 |
| Parklands and Northern | -3.6 | -1.2 |
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