Job prospects Transport Driver in Canada

People working as a transport driver have different job prospects depending on where they work in Canada. Find out what the future holds for them in your province or territory. These prospects are applicable to all Transport truck drivers (NOC 7511).

Note: These employment prospects were published in December 2021 based on the information available at the time of analysis. The next update will be in December 2022. To learn more, see our FAQs. You can also find additional information on the Canadian Online Job Posting Dashboard.

Job opportunities over the next 3 years

Explore future job prospects by province and territory.

Location Job prospects
Newfoundland and Labrador Fair Fair
Prince Edward Island Good Good
Nova Scotia Good Good
New Brunswick Fair Fair
Quebec Fair Fair
Ontario Good Good
Manitoba Fair Fair
Saskatchewan Fair Fair
Alberta Fair Fair
British Columbia Good Good
Yukon Territory Good Good
Northwest Territories Limited Limited
Nunavut Fair Fair
Legend: The job opportunities can be: Undetermined Limited Fair Good

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Labour market conditions over the next 10 years

Take a closer look at the projected labour demand and supply for this occupation over the 2019-2028 period. For more information on future job trends, go to the Canadian Occupational Projections System.


SHORTAGE: This occupational group is expected to face labour shortage conditions over the period of 2019-2028 at the national level. The section below contains more detailed information regarding the outlook for this occupational group.

Employment in 2018


Median age of workers in 2018


Average retirement age in 2018


Detailed analysis

In order to determine the expected outlook of an occupation, the magnitude of the difference between the projected total numbers of new job seekers and job openings over the whole projection period (2019-2028) is analyzed in conjunction with an assessment of labour market conditions in recent years. The intention is to determine if recent labour market conditions (surplus, balance or shortage) are expected to persist or change over the period 2019-2028. For instance, if the analysis of key labour market indicators suggests that the number of job seekers was insufficient to fill the job openings (a shortage of workers) in an occupational group in recent years, the projections are used to assess if this situation will continue over the projection period or if the occupation will move towards balanced conditions.

Over the 2016-2018 period, employment in this occupational group increased at a similar pace than the average among all occupations. However, these gains were all concentrated only in 2018, and were following consecutive job losses that had started in 2013. The unemployment rate declined significantly, reaching its lowest historical point, but remaining around the national average of 5.8% in 2018. On the other hand, a rise in the number of job vacancies suggests signs of tightening labour markets. This resulted in having a lower number of unemployed workers to fill vacancies, reaching a ratio of almost only one unemployed per vacancy in 2018. People in this occupation operate heavy trucks to transport goods and materials over urban, interurban, provincial and international routes. They must hold a specific driver's license, consistent with the class of truck they must drive for work. As a result, this occupation contains all sorts of truck drivers, including moving van drivers and short- and long-haul truck drivers, among many others. Employers face other barriers recruiting employees such as the high cost of insurance premiums for drivers below 25 years old who have little driving experience. Hence, the analysis of key labour market indicators suggests that the number of job seekers was sufficient to fill the job openings in this occupational group. Yet, pressures might still exist to recruit long-haul truck drivers, largely because they often face difficult working conditions, such as lengthy times away from home due to the long distances they must drive.

For Transport truck drivers, over the period 2019-2028, new job openings (arising from expansion demand and replacement demand) are expected to total 119,900 , while 96,600 new job seekers (arising from school leavers, immigration and mobility) are expected to be available to fill them.

Although this occupational group has had a balanced market in recent years, projected job openings are expected to be substantially higher to job seekers, creating a shortage of workers over the 2019-2028 period. Retirements are expected to account for about 60% of all job openings, a proportion that is comparable with other occupations (about 59% of openings). Although workers in this occupational group tend to be older than the average, they also tend to retire at a later age, resulting in a retirement rate that is similar to the average rate of all occupations. Job creation is expected to represent about one-quarter of the total job openings. Given that the truck and ground passenger transportation services industry is directly related to the performance of the economy as a whole, employment growth for this occupation is expected to be similar to the average of all occupations. Over the projection period, this occupation is expected to benefit from solid growth in wholesale and retail trade activities, supporting demand for the transportation of merchandise and positively affecting employment for these workers. Additionally, a stronger U.S. economy and a relatively low Canadian dollar are expected to increase demand for Canadian exports and the need to hire truck drivers, especially those involved in long-haul operations.

With regard to labour supply, job seekers are projected to be substantially lower than job openings. This is largely because school leavers will contribute only one-third of all job seekers, a proportion that is significantly below the average of all occupations (about 77% of seekers). Employers in this field rarely hire youth under 25 years old due to the experience requirements and higher insurance costs. Indeed, only about 5% of truck drivers were under 25 in 2018, a proportion that was substantially lower than in all occupations (13%). New immigrants will account for about another third of job seekers, a proportion that is comparable to the average of other occupations. However, given the relative low number of school leavers, the total volume of job seekers will largely depend on the volume workers that begin their career in another occupation before being hired as a truck driver. Indeed, it is expected that about 30% of job seekers will come from other occupations, a proportion that is substantially higher than the average of all occupations with positive occupational mobility (about 8% of seekers). However, attracting long-haul workers might be challenging as they are subject to working conditions that are typically perceived as unattractive. They not only require specific driver licenses that entail higher or more specific driving skills, but also must often be away from home for lengthy periods of time. As a result, the projected large volume of workers from other occupations looking for jobs in this one will not be sufficient to add enough additional job seekers to match the projected number of job openings.

Source Canadian Occupational Projections System – ESDC

Labour Market Information Survey
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